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The Dollar Isn't Doomed, FT's Martin Wolf Says: "Big Shock Upwards" Coming!

Posted Oct 30, 2009 07:30am EDT by Aaron Task in Newsmakers
The dollar resumed its downward path Thursday, lending credence to the idea any rally in the greenback is doomed to be short-lived. Many believe the dollar is going to lose its reserve status and more extreme observers like Mark Faber say it's on an inevitable path to zero.

Hogwash, says Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at The Financial Times. In fact, Wolf believes there could be a "big shock upwards" for the dollar in the next six months as the Fed takes concrete steps toward tightening (or actually does raise rates.) That, in turn, would prompt an unwind of the dollar carry trade and cause major upheaval in so-called risk assets currently being purchased with borrowed dollars, i.e. stocks, commodities and high-yield bonds.

This view stems from a belief that Fed policy and interest rate differentials are the main drivers of the dollar strength or weakness, not deficits and government spending.

As for the mega-bearish views on the dollar's "inevitable" decline, Wolf makes the following observations:

  • The dollar isn't going into terminal decline because America isn't Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany, Wolf says, adding: "This is not a country with stupendous debt." (That's heresy to the dollar doomsayers but America's debt-to-GDP is not as high as that of many other industrialized nations, much less Zimbabwe or the like.)
  • The dollar won't lose its reserve status because there needs to be a viable alternative, Wolf says. Right now, only the euro provides legitimate competition to the dollar and will likely gain a higher share of international reserves over time vs. the current 65% dollars and 25% euros. But the Eurozone has its own problems, he notes, most notably high deficits and debts. (Just like America!)

"Remember what happened in the crisis [of 2008] -- people bought dollars," Wolf recalls. "There is no better indication than that of the market's belief [the dollar] is the safe haven, and that hasn't changed."

48 Comments

Michael
Michael - Friday October 30, 2009 07:41AM EDT

Another expert opinion of "Fluff".

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 07:43AM EDT

Just go with the flow....

Kerry
Kerry - Friday October 30, 2009 07:53AM EDT

I believe the dollar is loosing strength, and will continue to do so, because the crisis is winding down, Investors are looking to put their funds back to work around the world rather than stay in the safe haven the dollar provides in times of crisis.

Sarah
Sarah - Friday October 30, 2009 07:54AM EDT

Just as soon as I think tech ticker has only worthless guests (i.e the "world is actually cooling" guy), someone qualified and intelligent comes along. This gentleman brings up 2 very important points I have been making about the dollar 1) The downside is more of a correction than a drop being as the dollar soared during the recession 2) The dollar has strengthened its position as reserve currency due to the incredible buying of the $ during the recession as a safe haven. I love when people step back from the current panics and use logic. Good work to tech ticker and Mr Wolf

Rick
Rick - Friday October 30, 2009 08:10AM EDT

So lets me understand this … the government stimulates the economy on the biggest ticket items (Car & Homes) and times it perfectly to coincide with the holiday shopping season (3rd Q GDP). Everybody rejoices because “the recession is over”. However … what about ALL the other data? Continual job losses and layoffs, Profits down, Slow home sales, More foreclosures, Banks not loaning (not that they should), US dollar tumbling, Oil/gas rising, inflation/deflation, US Deficit growing exponentially, etc… I understand that the government needs to trick the people into believing the economy is alright, so that they can spend money over the holidays thus really kick-starting a recovery to reverse the downward turning economic engine. BUT we are stimulating the wrong people and just continuing the errors of the past … Giving free money to the irresponsible … WE NEED TO FIX the original problem … look for higher even more foreclosures and now … repossessed cars in the near future.

marx
marx - Friday October 30, 2009 08:11AM EDT

Sarah, martin is a member of the Bilderberg group and left the World bank in 81,neither are trusted groups

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 08:12AM EDT

The long term dollr is down. period. a shock followed by more odwn. the structural problems are too great. We have lost 79% of our value against the euro since about 2000. To me that means the dollr has laready been finished. Wolf is too blinded by neoclassical economics to step out of the box. People bought dollrs in the crisis because there was no other market to handle the amount of money. What wolf is saying is that we need frequent crisis to support the dollar.. I true reserve currency stores its value, it doesn't just go up in a time of crisis. this is what Mr. Wolf's myopic view does not understand.

Rick
Rick - Friday October 30, 2009 08:14AM EDT

I do agree that a falling dollor is not all bad ... it makes US products more price competitive ... now if we only had products to sell!

- Friday October 30, 2009 08:16AM EDT

the only reason the dollar goes up in a crisis is because the treasury market is the only market large enough to support the dislocations. Once other sizable markets are established the dolr is done. People go into the dollar at times of safety becuase they have no other choice. May I add that during the crisis the yen gained on the dollar. therefore yen is more sefty trade. (preferred)

Tex
Tex - Friday October 30, 2009 08:20AM EDT

A weak dollar helps our exports and stimulates real GDP growth. High oil prices keep a focus on reducing oil use, especially foreign oil, in favor of gas, alternative energy and nuclear. I see nothing but positive for the economy from a weak dollar.

Trav
Trav - Friday October 30, 2009 08:26AM EDT

Finally someone reasonable. I want them to interview hugh hendry too. This is a gold nugget in the whole mess of the news. More quality people like this guy Please :) I'm tired of you guys interviewing stupid people.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday October 30, 2009 08:27AM EDT

This is all interesting. has anyone taken the time to look at a lot of these economic results being spewed for 3Q? 80% of companies reporting "positive earnings" that "exceeded estimates" achieved those goals by reducing costs... for the people that will not check this out, that means cutting people, moving jobs where it is less epensive, or just not doing the work. The average hours worked per week is still in the 33 hour range and has not gone higher in over 10 months. Inventory replenishment cycles are still over 30 days and have not changed in over 10 months. This bullshit about "unemployment going down" is just that. The average wage has dropped 12%. Rail and truck transportation is down 27%. Mortgage rates are still over 5% on 30 year, fixed. Oil is $80/bbl. Home foreclosures up and inventory is still very high. Now that all the pumpers are screaming about 50% up market, you have people jumping in to cash in on rise... these are very interesting times....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 08:30AM EDT

Go long...

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday October 30, 2009 08:32AM EDT

Tex, what exports? And, with the USA importing huge amounts of oil that is negatively affected by the low dollar, how do that help America? You work to produce something for export, get paid crap wages, and end up paying more for products that have oil components? Helping whom?

Rooster59
Rooster59 - Friday October 30, 2009 08:36AM EDT

As long as the Fed continues it's accommodative policies, the dollar will suffer, but economic forces can't be denied forever. Our approach to monetary policy is like our approach to health care - wait until the patient is nearly comotose, then head to the ER. America is unwilling to take it's medicine (inflation).

JUAN
JUAN - Friday October 30, 2009 08:52AM EDT

The U.S. Dollar Is Crumbling.....Because..."Helicopter" Ben Bernanke....Has Taken A position,,,,Of Letting The Dollar..FALL...He Has Tottally..."Destroyed" Our Currency....A Country Without....A Strong Currency....WILL NOT SURVIVE....Regardless..Of What Anybody Else Says....Truly A Sad Day For Our Nation.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 08:55AM EDT

I'm glad tech ticker has decided to interview a more diverse set of guests. It must have been embarrassing constantly pushing doom and gloom as the market showed steady green for the last seven months. I guess Task must have altered his portfolio a bit since then...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 30, 2009 08:57AM EDT

I have my gold silver and guns... hehehe, i'm ready baby!

BENEVOLUS
BENEVOLUS - Friday October 30, 2009 08:59AM EDT

God comment Sarah. Thomas you need to be a little more positive.Market going to 13,500 next year unemployment to 6.5 by end of next year

holy smokes
holy smokes - Friday October 30, 2009 09:00AM EDT

So if you dont agree, shut up and just pay the bill?

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